This week, we are presenting an article from Evergreen Gavekal’s partner, Louis-Vincent Gave, on what’s in store for markets as the world reopens.
At the beginning of the year, it seemed almost unfathomable to those in the West that the world would change as drastically as it did at the end of the first quarter.
At the end of last week, David Hay outlined his case that the Fed should – and would – buy enormous amounts of corporate bonds and that the US Treasury might resurrect TARP (also known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program) to stabilize the economy. Evidently Fed-head Jerome Powell is a close follower of Evergreen’s newsletter!
When we published our letter on hard assets in late-December, there was no way of knowing what geo-political events would unfold only a week later. But, when the US attacked one of Iran’s most beloved and decorated generals on January 3rd, shockwaves reverberated around the globe, stoking fears of further conflict in the Middle East.
It is said there are “no atheists in foxholes”. When things get desperate, we all like to imagine a better outcome on the other side of whatever nightmare is being endured. It is also the case that when facing challenges, a natural reflex is to cling to beliefs installed in us at a young age.