When we published our letter on hard assets in late-December, there was no way of knowing what geo-political events would unfold only a week later. But, when the US attacked one of Iran’s most beloved and decorated generals on January 3rd, shockwaves reverberated around the globe, stoking fears of further conflict in the Middle East.
It is said there are “no atheists in foxholes”. When things get desperate, we all like to imagine a better outcome on the other side of whatever nightmare is being endured. It is also the case that when facing challenges, a natural reflex is to cling to beliefs installed in us at a young age.
When writing Q&A On The Hong Kong Dollar Peg back in May, there was no inkling that trust between the police and much of Hong Kong’s population would fully break down. Today, there is a parallel with the 1992 riots in Los Angles…
Historically, three waves have driven capitalism forward, each dominating in turn.
In the mid-1950s, geologist M. King Hubbert theorized that “peak oil” would come when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum was reached, after which the production of oil would enter terminal decline. At the time Hubbert presented his theory, he predicted that US peak oil would occur around 1970. The theory appeared accurate for a time, however, pessimistic prophesies on the future of oil have continued to prove false as world oil production has not only risen but hit a new all-time high in 2018.