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  1. Curious Mayhem says:

    Strong suspicion that the US suffered a mild recession in late 2015 and early 2016. We’re fooled by faulty jobs and GDP numbers. (1) The jobs numbers include large birth-death corrections for small and medium-sized business that aren’t directly counted; that is, they’re estimated on past decades and theoretical assumptions. The estimates are probably wrong because the number of businesses in the US is shrinking and thus presumably also job-creating capacity. (2) The GDP numbers are plainly distorted by how Obamacare and health care generally are counted. That’s been a clear problem since 2015, if not earlier.

    After all, we have declining corporate earnings and sales, rising defaults (above 5% now, a clear recessionary signal), over a year of contraction in manufacturing and energy, and a rising inventory/sales ratio (well into recessionary territory for over a year). How can we not have had a recession?

    Agree on another recession in 2017 being likely. The putative 2015-16 recession was mild; the next one will be worse.

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