1. Curious Mayhem says:

    Very nice summary of the current situation.

    We need to consider the serious probability that the US had a recession in late 2015. Both official jobs and GDP numbers are seriously distorted by the birth-death model and the misrepresentation of health care. After all, almost every standard recession number was flashing in the last year, until the last six months — defaults, yield curve, earnings, inventories, etc.

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