Long-time EVA readers know that I am an unabashed admirer of my friend and partner, Charles Gave. Recently, I had a chance to chat with him in Whistler at the annual Gavekal retreat and, even though he is knocking on the door of the three-quarter century mark, he has not lost his wit nor his willingness to challenge prevailing orthodoxies.
The US has been a terrific place to invest since 2009. In fact, looking at one of the charts we presented in last week’s Infographic EVA, the S&P 500 has outperformed MSCI Asia Pacific by 101%, MSCI Europe by 107%, and MSCI Emerging Markets by 132% during that timeframe.
Much has been written in this publication’s pages about a forthcoming correction to the aging bull market. Last month, we wrote briefly about the first visible signs of chink in the armor when, on May 17th, the Dow Jones and S&P retracted -1.8% over reports that President Trump tampered with a federal investigation.
The theme of this week’s EVA revolves around the topic of peak oil demand. Much has been written and debated about this recently – especially considering energy’s dismal start to 2017 and Trump’s recent decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
Momentous Minsky. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, this newsletter praised an economist who never lived to see the ultimate vindication of his life’s work. His name was Hyman Minsky and as those of you who track the financial markets even casually know, we’re not alone in our fascination with his theories.