Comments (5)

  1. James Tobin says:

    Thank-you so much. I value your knowledge, honesty and integrity.
    James

  2. Jim Howard says:

    Just maybe the increase in t yields may be the salvation
    Of the retired.
    If it happens before they spend down whats left of their portfoliOs.

  3. Jason isherwood says:

    Since when has cash been an inflation hedge?

  4. John perris says:

    PeoPle’s feelings drive the market.
    1. RaTio of russel 2000 to sPy, show people runing toward quality.
    2. Individual investOr data shoWs bearish seNtiment.
    Maybe time to sell, and go home.

  5. if interest rates on existing debt/loan mkt (ruffly 3 times gdp) goes up the prices must go down. the holders of the debt/loan paper are owners of etfs, indexes,401Ks, pension and mutual funds…just about everyone. so if bond/debt mkt prices come down about 10% it is the equivalent of lost wealth equal to 30% of gdp. if the large pool Managers of the debt do not mark to market then the owners who sell first are given higher prices than underlying real market price in the investment entity. thus the remaining holders will be punished when they sell because the market prices received cannot be higher than the actual prices in the market or the real assets in the entity. as this dawns on the remaining holders there will be a rush to sell. this means most people will be poorer than they think they are and they will start to save and therefore not spend. severe overcapacity world wide built on a layer of excessive debt a toxic combination. the loss of paper wealth because the debt/loan is so much larger than gdp makes the discussion of whether the gdp will grow 2-4% a head fake to disguise the real problem. the real risk is at public companies because they have certified financials and did and can borrow easier than private companies…and they sent a fair amount of the borrowed money to shareholders with share buyback and dividends..not a bad thing but that means the public corps spent much less of the money raised by debt/loan sales on plant/equipment, people training etc to pay off the debt/loans raised.

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