The original idea for this week’s EVA was to compile a list of “winners” and “losers” should the escalating trade war play out fully.
The second quarter of 2018 kicked off with a bang as growing tensions in technology and trade sent investors searching for cover on Monday. In fact, it was the worst April start since… drumroll please… 1929.
Have you ever wondered what causes recessions and their close cousins, bear markets? In this month’s Gavekal Evergreen Virtual Adviser (EVA), my good friends Charles Gave and Will Denyer attempt to answer that question, one that has vexed economists and even Federal Reserve officials for decades.
Nearly one year ago to the week, this newsletter made the wild-hair case that the Fed was serious about raising rates. At the time it was a contrarian call—as so many of ours are—because, for years, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen had consistently failed to “normalize” interest rates.
In an echo of the early February market meltdown, panic unexpectedly shook markets as President Trump unleashed the opening salvo in his war on trade at the end of last month. Bloomberg even went so far as to dub the pull-back a “Tariff Tantrum” in an ominous ode to the Taper Tantrum of 2013.