Comments (6)

  1. jim edsel says:

    PERHAPS YOUR BEST EVA TO DATE (OTHER THAN ALL THE PRIOR ONES WHERE YOU WARNED OF THE RAMIFICATIONS OF FED/GOVT PROFLIGACY). the govt reminds me of Hardy telling Laurel, “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into”. unfortunately, but more appropriately, this has led us to the ed Grimley SNL quote, “we’re as doomed as doomed can be”.

  2. Alex Evanochko says:

    Mr. Hay,
    Thank you for this chapter of Bubble 3.0. The comments you made regarding the crickets you heard about this virus in Previous EVAs made me think of the axiom: “Better to be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt…” We still don’t fully know what this virus is capable of. It’s only been 6 months and reoccurrences are happening right now in China, Hong Kong and Singapore so we are still a ways away from getting this germ under control. What the economic damage resulting from this self imposed shutdown is anyone’s guess. My biggest worry is what happens if this thing comes back this coming winter but is compounded by a new, different and much stronger virus? What then? Do we shut down again only this time for far longer? Our collective economies would not survive such a scenario no matter how much money is printed…Invest in distilleries, I guess.

  3. Nicholas Gordon-Smith says:

    the average age of us military personel is about 34 years. this may explain –

    “the most confounding datapoint I’ve come across: the total number of active military deaths due to the virus. As of April 20th, there have, thankfully, only been 22!”

  4. Carmen maynard says:

    Funny money (fed) begets funny money(asset prices). It is a herculean task to find unfunny money investments these days which is pRobably why gold is doing well. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold. It is very expensive and difficult to get out of the ground so supply doesn’t balloon at will. Sure, It does not provide anY income but tHen neither do deposits Or bonds in Many markets. And who knows what the real, sustainable earnings and dividend capabilities of stocks are these days?
    Thank you david for your sustained, rational analysis in the face of a multituDe of naysayers.

    1. Paul Reger says:

      Global QE IS STARRING US IN THE FACE. WE IMPORTED THE VIRUS FROM EUROPE. SOUTHERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WERE ON THEIR DEATH BED JUST A FEW SHORT YEARS AGO. PORTUGAL, sPain, greece etc. Can the eu hold! What’s to say they doN’t next exPort a financial crisis to our shores.

  5. Peter Allenby says:

    David,

    Your summary of events and valuations is wonderfully understandable and as accurate and strong a presentation as I have encountered of our circumstances in this country.
    The Fed seems to be in the box canyon and the sheer walls tower a thousand feet upwards. The question is whether they have the capacity and capability to fight their way out of the trouble. Perhaps if COVID-19 hadn’t made an appearance the charade could have continued for some more time. But we now face a situation where the growth of GDP will be outpaced by the growth of debt service and that cannot end well.

    As the seasons change, COVID-19 narrative is also changing. Skeptics braying for release from quarantine and increasingly desperate small business owners demanding we “open the economy”. WILL WE FACE ONE LAST HURRAH FROM HERE WITH MARKETS responding to positive “animal spirits”, SURFING THIS TSUNAMI OF LIQUIDITY TO SOME FINAL TOP before reality sends markets and global economies tumbling??

    Looking forward to your considerable talents weaving the final chapters of this tale.

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