Nearly one year ago to the week, this newsletter made the wild-hair case that the Fed was serious about raising rates. At the time it was a contrarian call—as so many of ours are—because, for years, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen had consistently failed to “normalize” interest rates.
In an echo of the early February market meltdown, panic unexpectedly shook markets as President Trump unleashed the opening salvo in his war on trade at the end of last month. Bloomberg even went so far as to dub the pull-back a “Tariff Tantrum” in an ominous ode to the Taper Tantrum of 2013.
The 2018 Winter Olympic Games are nearly behind us, and so is the latest chase for the ultimate sports prize: a gold medal.
First, please accept my apologies for a slightly delayed edition of our annual Unexpected Outcomes Evergreen Virtual Advisor. However, as most regular EVA readers know, we have run several forecast-oriented issues to kick-off the new year.
The Evergreen Virtual Advisor is nearly 10,000 subscribers strong, up from just 500 readers, 7 years ago. Roughly 10% of subscribers are clients, leaving us with the sometimes-difficult task of writing to two distinct audiences. Clients are keenly interested in Evergreen-specific happenings, whereas outside readers are more interested in our macro market outlook. This week’s newsletter attempts to carefully thread the needle between both interests.