This week’s EVA is a continuation of last week’s “Pull It Together” issue. The main idea is to summarize the key factors and forces Evergreen sees impacting the financial markets now and, more importantly, in the future.
Every so often, I like to summarize our “CinemaScope” view of current conditions. Perhaps these days it should be called our “IMAX outlook”, but the point is to try to pull together our big picture perception of the financial and economic landscape.
Much has been written in this publication’s pages about a forthcoming correction to the aging bull market. Last month, we wrote briefly about the first visible signs of chink in the armor when, on May 17th, the Dow Jones and S&P retracted -1.8% over reports that President Trump tampered with a federal investigation.
To Invest, or Not to Invest, that is the Question. The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article debating whether the Social Security trust fund should be allowed to invest in stocks. The piece juxtaposes two opposing views; one side arguing ‘Yes’ and the other ‘No’.
Recent populist-driven election results underscore the truth that a race cannot be called until every vote is tallied. Remember the final polls leading up to November 8th? The New York Times predicted, with 84% certainty, that Hillary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. In fact, consensus polls didn’t have Trump within 1.5 percentage points of Clinton between June 2016 and election day.