Comments (4)

  1. Two modest bits of advice on the bond market and the FOMC tightening (whenever it will happen… I thought I had Godot holding on line #2, but he hung up). 1) The FOMC has moved at roughly half its forecast rate since providing detailed forecasts. I.e., it has taken twice as long to get there as originally projected. 2) Watch long bonds. The long end of the curve marches to its own drummer. It is not impossible for long bonds to rally amid FOMC tightening, if the economy continues in the present blah mode.

  2. Leonard says:

    History lesson: In the spring of 1938 the U.S. 10 year Treasury rate dropped below 2.5% for the first time in history (or at least history back to 1871), it did not go back above that rate until the fall of 1950 then over the next 27 months the 10 year went steadily up, by a grand total of 33 basis points -not exactly bear market. In mid ’53 it spiked up to 3%, briefly, by 1954 the ten was back below 2.5%. In ’55 it went back above 2.5% and then climbed steadily for the next 26 years reaching a peak around 15½% mid ’81 …and then came the 30+ year bond bull market which finally took the ten below 2.5% once again in the summer of 2011. Point here being bond interest rate cycles are long, very.

  3. Thomas Wolf says:

    Congratulations to Evergreen GK and Worth Wray.

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