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Unexpected Outcomes

By David Hay January 20, 2017 Evergreen Virtual Advisor

Evergreen initiated a slightly modified version of its annual forecast EVA just over a year ago. We shifted from specific predictions to attempting to identify developments that could catch the investment community off-guard. As we noted at the time, this was an unabashed imitation of what Blackstone’s Byron Wien has done for years (including when he was Chief US Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley). However, we also did this because it is the most unanticipated events that have the greatest market impact.

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A Tale of Two Halves

By David Hay January 13, 2017 Chartbook

A Tale of Two Halves: If we simply evaluate global market returns last year, one might conclude 2016 was a fairly uneventful. Global stocks and bonds finished up 8%, and 4% respectively, which is generally what you’d expect in a typical year. However, if we dive a bit deeper “uneventful” wouldn’t be an appropriate description.

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Was Nixon Right, After All?

By David Hay December 30, 2016 Evergreen Virtual Advisor - Guest

Legend has it that Richard Nixon once said: “We’re all Keynesians now.” In reality—and most ironically—those words were actually uttered years earlier by the ultimate anti-Keynesian economist, Milton Friedman. However, former President Nixon did riff off of this when he declared, after removing the US from the gold standard in 1971, “I’m now a Keynesian in economics.” Unsurprisingly, this turned out to be bad news for the American public as Mr. Nixon’s conversion unleashed a decade of stagnation and inflation. As a result, this wrenching experience produced a new term that the disciples of Keynes had previously believed was impossible: stagflation.

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Gentlemen (and women) don’t prefer bonds

By David Hay December 23, 2016 Evergreen Virtual Advisor

Click here to view as PDF.

“The world currently has an excess of every manufactured good.”
-JOHANN RUPERT, CEO of luxury consumer products company, Richemont.

“Clearly, our consumers’ budgets are pinched.”
-Dollar General CEO, TODD VASOS

First of all, Evergreen would like to wish all of its clients,

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Small caps, large prices

By David Hay December 16, 2016 Evergreen Virtual Advisor

Click here to view as PDF.

“The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable.”
-JIM ROGERS, acclaimed investor and former partner of George Soros

“You can’t buy what is popular and do well.”
-WARREN BUFFETT

 

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