In late-July, we published the musings of famed investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio in a piece titled “The Instant Classic,” which came by way of another widely admired source, Mike O’Rourke author of The Closing Print. As the title suggests, the work is one of the transcendent pieces that will likely be included in the “Financial Commentary Hall of Fame” when it’s all said and done.
For over 30 years, I have read every Barron’s Roundtable edition interviewing many of the world’s foremost money managers. Past and current members have included Peter Lynch, Mario Gabelli (still a participant), Bill Gross and, though not nearly as well known, one of the best stock pickers extant, Meryl Witmer. Accordingly, it was with great pleasure that I discovered a former member of the esteemed cohort is also an EVA reader.
In his popular book, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics, Richard Thaler suggests that, “Many people have made money selling magic potions and Ponzi schemes, but few have gotten rich selling the advice, ‘Don’t buy that stuff’.” In fact, it can be downright unpopular to be the adult in the room when easy money seems to be falling from the skies like raindrops in Seattle in January.
Say what? It’s my suspicion that many, if not most, EVA readers have heard the term secular stagnation without quite fathoming what it means. It could be that the comprehension problem lies in that highfalutin word “secular”.
Back in early September, we ran a fascinating interview with Rick Davidson, former CEO and President of Century 21. In the exchange, Rick hinted at the beginnings of a real estate slowdown in the US, anticipating coastal markets would see the tide shifting first, before a more broad-based tightening took hold. Since then, ominous headlines have made waves in national publications, echoing and expanding on this outlook (you can find a particularly popular one in The Wall Street Journal).