“You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you.  You are right because your data and reasoning are right.”
-BEN GRAHAM, WARREN BUFFET’S STOCK MARKET MENTOR

In this latest issue of Points to Ponder, we are altering our usual format a bit to include one of the more interesting items I’ve come across lately.

“Everybody that manages money is waiting to catch the signal that the Fed will reverse course.  I think they’re on a hair trigger.  So I think the Fed will try to give little signals…but, in the end, there are an awful lot of people that want to get out of a lot of assets if they think the Fed is going to tighten a lot.” 
-WARREN BUFFETT ON CNBC EARLIER THIS WEEK.

“When I find myself on the side of the majority, I know it’s time to find a new place to side.” 
-MARK TWAIN

1.  Post-financial crisis market rallies have tended to run out of steam when Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus Stock Index has hit current levels. (See Figure 1)

2. 

“The idea that policy makers can perfectly unwind (their) unprecedented easing without some unintended consequences is theoretically possible but…unlikely.”
-MICHAEL HASENSTAB, MANAGER OF THE FRANKLIN TEMPLETON GLOBAL BOND FUND, RANKED NUMBER ONE AMONG ITS PEERS OVER THE LAST DECADE.

The cover story curse. The notion that the front covers of leading magazines are reliable contrary indicators is well known among veteran market commentators. 

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”
-SIR JOHN TEMPLETON

POINTS TO PONDER

1.  As our partners at GaveKal have repeatedly shown,