In late-July, we published the musings of famed investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio in a piece titled “The Instant Classic,” which came by way of another widely admired source, Mike O’Rourke author of The Closing Print. As the title suggests, the work is one of the transcendent pieces that will likely be included in the “Financial Commentary Hall of Fame” when it’s all said and done.
Throughout 2015 and all the way into 2018 the Fed was a bit obsessed with being “normal”. They wanted a “normal” interest rate (justifying rate hikes) and they wanted a “normal” balance sheet (justifying a reduction in that balance sheet).
Below are Evergreen Gavekal’s Likes/Dislikes for September 27, 2019.
Below are Evergreen Gavekal’s Likes/Dislikes for September 20, 2019.
In the mid-1950s, geologist M. King Hubbert theorized that “peak oil” would come when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum was reached, after which the production of oil would enter terminal decline. At the time Hubbert presented his theory, he predicted that US peak oil would occur around 1970. The theory appeared accurate for a time, however, pessimistic prophesies on the future of oil have continued to prove false as world oil production has not only risen but hit a new all-time high in 2018.