If someone were to dive deep into the Evergreen Virtual Advisor (EVA) archives, they would stumble upon a publication from two years ago titled, “America is Great, Home Country Bias Ain’t.” The bulk of the article was written by GMO’s Rick Friedman and its main premise is that investors skew their equity exposure towards their home country. Americans who have invested in line with this idea over the past decade have unquestionably been beneficiaries as benchmark indexes including the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones have all been on epic bull runs.
Evergreen Gavekal’s Likes/Dislikes for July 26, 2019.
In his popular book, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics, Richard Thaler suggests that, “Many people have made money selling magic potions and Ponzi schemes, but few have gotten rich selling the advice, ‘Don’t buy that stuff’.” In fact, it can be downright unpopular to be the adult in the room when easy money seems to be falling from the skies like raindrops in Seattle in January.
Evergreen Gavekal’s Likes/Dislikes for July 19, 2019.
Ben Horowitz, famed entrepreneur and venture capitalist, once quipped that as a startup CEO he “slept like a baby [because he] woke up every two hours and cried.” As many others at the head of early-stage businesses can attest, Ben isn’t overreaching all that far in his comparison. While many factors play into the often-disrupted sleep patterns of entrepreneurs, perhaps the most jarring is the fact that the vast majority of early-stage companies are destined to flop. Statistically speaking, nine out of ten startups will fail.