At the end of 2017, we initiated a new EVA series titled “Bubble Watch” where we went as far as to postulate that we’re in the midst of the Biggest Bubble Ever (BBE).
Generally speaking, the purpose of EVA is to communicate Evergreen’s overall outlook on the markets and economy. We tend to stick to this script by writing on topics such as central bank policy, inflation, the stock market, the bond market, and energy. One theme we try to avoid – or at least stay neutral on – is politics.
It’s time for a couple of firsts. The first “first” is that I’ve never before written an introduction to an introduction. The second is that I’ve never attempted to self-publish a book in real-time.
The original idea for this week’s EVA was to compile a list of “winners” and “losers” should the escalating trade war play out fully.
Nearly one year ago to the week, this newsletter made the wild-hair case that the Fed was serious about raising rates. At the time it was a contrarian call—as so many of ours are—because, for years, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen had consistently failed to “normalize” interest rates.