What has been the most surprising financial event of 2021? The 20% gain in equity prices, the 40% jump in oil prices and even the fivefold leap in US inflation may all have been bigger than expected, but they were at least directionally understandable consequences of the fastest growth in the world economy for 40 years.
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As is the case with Evergreen, our partner firm Gavekal encourages an environment of “opinion exchanges”. In the latter case, much of that stems from the inherent philosophical divergences regarding economics and politics between its three co-founders.
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During the first quarter of 2021, one of the hottest topics in financial circles was the sudden rise in bond yields. As a result, analysts and pundits from around the financial world pontificated as to whether this sharp spike would derail the bull run in equity markets.
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In the days leading up to the US election, markets seemed to be pricing in (1) uncertainty that would drag on after a contested presidential election and/or (2) a “blue wave” that would bring forward a Democratic agenda. This pricing was reflected in…
Read MoreStrange bedfellows: angry voters and market highs. It might seem odd, in the midst of the rampant bullishness engulfing markets since the election—and further stoked by Pres. Trump’s enthusiastically received congressional speech this week—to bring up the topic of social malaise. However, since Evergreen investment team members are congenital contrarians, we will do exactly that in this issue of the Gavekal EVA.
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