A recurring theme in various EVAs over the years is the importance of the yield curve. Sorry, I know a term like that can literally throw non-professional investors—i.e., those with a real life—for a curve. But, unlike with so many human relationships, it’s NOT complicated.
Have you ever wondered what causes recessions and their close cousins, bear markets? In this month’s Gavekal Evergreen Virtual Adviser (EVA), my good friends Charles Gave and Will Denyer attempt to answer that question, one that has vexed economists and even Federal Reserve officials for decades.
This month’s Gavekal EVA is a body slam worthy of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), at least for those who expect the investment status quo to continue being so. What’s particularly noteworthy is, as you will read, this article was written before the market suddenly did a face-plant early last month (a pratfall it is reprising in recent days).
Another EVA, another chance to read the thoughts of one of the planet’s smartest men, Anatole Kaletsky! This week’s issue is a follow-up to the January 26th edition, also by Anatole, titled “The Big Questions for 2018.” Among those urgent queries is one I personally believe might be the King Kong of them all: is the global bond market on the verge of a meltdown?
The year 2018 is still in its infancy, but some of the hot-button questions of late-2017 have been (or are currently being) answered: Will the Bitcoin bubble burst? Will political gridlock in Washington, D.C. lead to a federal government shutdown? Will anything slow down this raging bull market?